437
AWUS01 KWNH 041819
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-050018-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1200
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
219 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 041818Z - 050018Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STARTING TO PRODUCE HIGH
RAIN RATES NEAR SEA BREEZE FRONTS HEADING TOWARDS AN 850 HPA
CONFLUENCE ZONE. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 3" WITH LOCAL TOTALS TO
5" ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MERGE OR MANAGE TO TRAIN, WHICH COULD
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...AN 850 HPA CONFLUENCE ZONE STRETCHES ALONG THE FL
BORDER WITH GA/AL AT THE PRESENT TIME. SEA BREEZE CONVECTION
ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS HAS INITIATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE MARSHES OF SOUTHEAST GA AND
PORTIONS OF THE FL BIG BEND & PANHANDLE. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE ~2.25". EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS UNDER 25 KTS, IMPLYING
PULSE CONVECTION. ML CAPE IS 2000-3000 J/KG.
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL TRY TO PUSH WESTWARD
WITH TIME, PARTIALLY DUE TO THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NORTH OF THE
CONFLUENCE ZONE BUT ALSO DUE TO INSTABILITY BECOMING EXHAUSTED AND
RESULTANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 3" WITH
LOCAL TOTALS TO 5" ARE POSSIBLE, WHICH COULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS AND ACROSS THE RED HILLS OF
SOUTHERN GA AND THE FL BIG BEND/EASTERN PANHANDLE.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...CHS...JAX...LIX...MLB...MOB...TAE...TBW...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 31888611 31468158 30498128 29198112 29348269
29548524 29978580 30308664 30498841 31448885
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