989
AWUS01 KWNH 042024
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050222-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1202
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
423 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WESTERN TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 042022Z - 050222Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM AS CIN
ERODES. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2" COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
WHERE TOPSOIL IS MINIMAL OR IN URBAN AREAS.
DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM WEST
OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW RETROGRADING TOWARDS THE REGION WITHIN AN
AREA OF ERODING CIN AND IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK THERMAL
GRADIENT, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S/90S CLOSER TO THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND 100F IN THE CUMULUS FIELD TO ITS WEST.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.4-1.9" LIE HERE. ML CAPE IS
2000-3500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS CLOSE TO 25 KTS. THE
MEAN 850-400 HPA FLOW IS EXCEEDINGLY WEAK, ON THE ORDER OF 5 KT,
SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE 850 HPA INFLOW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BROADEN WITH TIME,
PEAKING IN COVERAGE AN INTENSITY 23-00Z BEFORE FADING THEREAFTER
AS CIN REDEVELOPS. INFLOW FROM THE GULF UP THE RIO GRANDE IS
EXPECTED TO VEER SLIGHTLY BUT INCREASE IN INTENSITY, BOTH OF WHICH
GIVEN THE MEAN FLOW COULD LEAD TO BACKBUILDING OR STATIONARY
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, AS INSTABILITY ERODES, THERE COULD BE A
TENDENCY FOR CONVECTION TO SHIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE RIO GRANDE
AS SEEN IN THE 12Z REFS GUIDANCE. IN THE MEANTIME, GIVEN THE
INGREDIENTS ABOVE, HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2" ARE POSSIBLE WHERE
CELLS MOVE VERY SLOWLY OR WHERE CELLS MERGE. THIS WOULD BE
PROBLEMATIC IN URBAN AREAS AND WHERE TOP SOIL IS MINIMAL.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...EWX...LUB...MAF...OUN...SJT...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 34310100 33489958 32219925 30299947 29670086
30250282 32410240
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