007
AWUS01 KWNH 042215
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-050413-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1203
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
615 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST AZ & NM
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 042213Z - 050413Z
SUMMARY...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NEAR ITS PEAK
REGIONALLY AND SHOULD BEGIN A DOWNTURN IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
THIS EVENING. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS, HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2.5" ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MERGE OR TRAIN, WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLASH
FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AT THE PRESENT TIME, WHICH IS ENHANCING
DIFLUENCE ALOFT NEAR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WHEN COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, THUNDERSTORMS OVER NM HAVE BEEN MORE NUMEROUS AND
PRODUCTIVE WHILE CELLS OVER SOUTHEAST AZ HAVE SEEN A DOWNTURN.
THIS IS DUE TO THE DAY-TO-DAY PRECIPITABLE WATER TRENDS, WHICH ARE
UP ~0.50" IN NM AND DOWN 0.25-0.5" IN SOUTHERN AZ, LIKELY CAUSED
BY MARIE'S SLOW DEPARTURE AND SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS RESIDE WITHIN A REGION
OF 700 HPA CONFLUENCE. REGIONALLY, PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
1-1.7" CURRENTLY WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES IN SOUTHWEST NM/NEAR EL
PASO TX. ML CAPE IS 500-1000 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS 25-30
KTS IN PORTIONS OF NM, AND BELOW 25 KTS IN AZ.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOW DOWNTURN IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AND ACCELERATE AFTER 01Z, WITH
ACTIVITY IN SOUTHWEST NM/NEAR EL PASO HANGING ON THE LONGEST. FOR
AS LONG AS CELL COVERAGE CAN REMAIN SUFFICIENT, HOURLY RAIN
AMOUNTS TO 2.5" ARE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS MERGE OR TRAIN, WHICH
WOULD BE PROBLEMATIC IN BURN SCARS, ARROYOS/DRY WASHES, SLOT/BOX
CANYONS, AND URBAN AREAS.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...TWC...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 36260689 35860502 34380432 32550525 31380693
31170940 31461180 32741020 34570916
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