866
AWUS01 KWNH 042312
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-050337-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1204
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
708 PM EDT FRI SEP 04 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VA & NC
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 042307Z - 050337Z
SUMMARY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MARCH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2.5" WITH ADDITIONAL
LOCAL TOTALS TO 4" COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GREATER
CONCENTRATION NEAR THE EASTERN VA/NC BORDER CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WITHIN A ZONE OF 850 HPA CONFLUENCE
NEAR A THERMAL BOUNDARY, THOUGH MORE ELEVATED AS OF LATE. THIS
ACTIVITY LIES ON THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A WARM CORE RIDGE.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.75-2" EXIST HERE. ML/MU CIN HAS
DEVELOPED ACROSS VA AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN NC; MU
CAPE OF 2000-3500 J/KG IS SEEN REGIONALLY. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
IS 25-40 KTS, WHICH IS HELPING TO ORGANIZE CONVECTION.
WITH MU CIN DEVELOPING, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
WANE WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SLOW REDUCTION IN THE SCALE OF THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT. IN THE MEANTIME, CELL MERGERS, MESOCYCLONES,
AND CELL TRAINING COULD LEAD TO HOURLY RAIN AMOUNTS TO 2.5" AND
ADDITIONAL LOCAL TOTALS TO 4". THESE AMOUNTS WOULD BE MOST
PROBLEMATIC IN URBAN AREAS.
ROTH
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...LWX...MHX...RAH...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...
LAT...LON 37797677 37677553 36927581 36147537 35297530
34947589 34607639 34427775 35687977 37537944
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