182
FXHW01 KWNH 100809
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
409 AM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
VALID 00Z FRI 11 SEP 2026 - 00Z FRI 18 SEP 2026
A TROPICAL WAVE, THE LAST REMNANTS OF THE MOISTURE PLUME CONNECTED
TO TROPICAL STORM LOWELL, WILL MOVE WEST AND LEAVE THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING
SHOULD WORK TO SUPPRESS AFTERNOON SHOWERS, EVEN ON THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS INTO THE WEEKEND, DESPITE THE RETURN OF THE
TRADES. THUS, EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY WEEKEND ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE.
ON MONDAY, THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND
FROM THE EAST. THIS WILL RE-ENHANCE THE RAINFALL ON THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE ISLANDS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
THERE ARE INDICATIONS IN SOME OF THE GUIDANCE THAT WELL SOUTH OF
THE BIG ISLAND, THAT A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MAY TRY TO FORM. HOW
MUCH THIS DISTURBANCE DEVELOPS IS A BIG QUESTION, AS THE GUIDANCE
IS AS WIDESPREAD ABOUT WHETHER IT DEVELOPS OR NOT AS IT CAN BE.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS HIGHLIGHTING THE AREA FOR A LOW
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS, EVEN THE GUIDANCE THAT DEVELOPS
THIS DISTURBANCE THE MOST, SUCH AS THE CANADIAN, KEEP THE
DISTURBANCE EITHER WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS, OR DISSIPATES IT
INTO THE BROADER WAVE WELL BEFORE IT REACHES THE BIG ISLAND. THUS,
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXPECT A GREATER COVERAGE OF RAIN
ACROSS THE WINDWARD SIDES AS COMPARED TO THE TYPICAL DAY. THE
DISTURBANCE COULD SLOW DOWN THE WESTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE,
WHICH THEN WOULD TRANSLATE TO A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER.
GENERALLY, THE WEATHER SHOULD IMPROVE BY THURSDAY, AS WEAK RIDGING
RETURNS THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE BACK TO NORMAL. THAT SAID, THE
TROPICS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE, AND THE EC SUGGESTS THAT THE
FUTURE HURRICANE THAT NOW IS TD 14E WILL BEGIN TO MAKE AN
UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE APPROACH TO THE ISLANDS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
OTHER GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY SO PESSIMISTIC, SO THAT WILL REMAIN
TO BE SEEN.
WEGMAN
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