234
FXHW01 KWNH 120718
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 AM EDT SAT SEP 12 2026
VALID 00Z SUN 13 SEP 2026 - 00Z SUN 20 SEP 2026
RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS ANY IMPACTS FROM LOWELL HAVE FINALLY BEEN PUT TO REST WITH
A RETURN TO A MORE GENERAL TRADE WIND PATTERN AS HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC DOMINATES THE OVERALL PATTERN. BY MONDAY,
THERE ARE HINTS OF ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE MIGHT TRY TO DEVELOP
INTO SOMETHING MORE APPRECIABLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS
WITH A BIT OF AN ELEVATED MOISTURE FLUX CORRELATING WITH THE
POTENTIAL DISTURBANCE. MOST GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A LOW PROBABILITY
OF FORMATION, BUT CONSENSUS IN THE ENSEMBLES ARE FOR AT LEAST AN
UPTICK IN AREAL PWATS, CLOSER TO A +2 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALY
WHICH WOULD PLACE PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.7-2.0" THROUGHOUT THE
ISLAND CHAIN.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A LOW CHANCE (20%)
OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 7-DAYS. DESPITE THE LOW PROBABILITY
OF ANY TROPICAL FORMATION, THE TIME FRAME OF TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, EXPECT A GREATER COVERAGE OF RAIN ACROSS THE WINDWARD
SIDES AS COMPARED TO THE TYPICAL DAY. CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TO SEE THE GREATEST
UPTICK IN HEAVY RAIN PROSPECTS AND TOTALS A BIT ELEVATED COMPARED
TO THE NORMAL TRADE WIND PATTERN. GENERALLY, THE WEATHER SHOULD
IMPROVE BY THURSDAY, AS WEAK RIDGING RETURNS THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE BACK TO NORMAL, ALBEIT PWATS REMAINING A BIT ELEVATED
ACCORDING TO ANOMALY FORECASTS.
KLEEBAUER
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