992
FXHW01 KWNH 230924
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
524 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
VALID 00Z THU 24 SEP 2026 - 00Z THU 01 OCT 2026
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT GROWING ESPECIALLY FOR THE BIG
ISLAND AS TROPICAL CYCLONE APPROACHES...
HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE RECENTLY RE-FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN LATER TODAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE
AND STRENGTHEN. PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN
REGIONS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF HAWAII, LESSER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED
FLOODING.
THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY HOW CLOSE THE NORTHWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
CYCLONE GETS TO THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE TAKING A
MORE WESTERLY TRACK. WHEN/IF THIS SHIFT OCCURS HAS CONSIDERABLE
IMPLICATIONS FOR THE ASSOCIATED HAZARDS. THE GFS DEFLECTS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF WITH A LESS
RAINFALL AND A SMALLER FOOTPRINT OF WIND AND RAIN.
ALWAYS REFER TO THE ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR LATEST INFORMATION.
ONCE THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY...A RETURN TO MODERATE TRADE WIND
PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AND RAINFALL BECOME MORE DRIVEN BY
INTERACTION OF THE TRADES WITH TERRAIN AS HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
LOOK TO CLEAR OUT.
BANN
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