154
FXHW01 KWNH 240928
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
528 AM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
VALID 00Z FRI 25 SEP 2026 - 00Z FRI 02 OCT 2026
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLOOD THREAT GROWING ESPECIALLY FOR THE BIG
ISLAND AS NOLO STRENGTHENS AND STARTS APPROACHING SLOWLY...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY TODAY AND
FRIDAY...AS NOLO APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND SLOWLY FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS WILL LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING,
CATASTROPHIC FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF STEEP
TERRAIN OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF HAWAII LESSER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED WITH
CONCERNS FOR ISOLATED FLOODING.
MUCH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ABOUT THE ACTUAL TRACK OF THE STORM GIVEN
POTENTIAL INTERACTIONS WITH A TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE EAST. HOW CLOSE THE STORM GETS TO HAWAII COULD
HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS IN HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS AND WHERE IT
FALLS WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL, FLOODING,
MUDSLIDES AND DAMAGING WINDS HAPPEN.
ALWAYS REFER TO THE ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER FOR LATEST INFORMATION.
ONCE THE CYCLONE PULLS AWAY...A RETURN TO MODERATE TRADE WIND
PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AND RAINFALL BECOME MORE DRIVEN BY
INTERACTION OF THE TRADES WITH TERRAIN AS HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES
LOOK TO CLEAR OUT. EXACTLY WHEN THAT RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL TRADE
PATTERN IS MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE INTERACTIONS NOTED ABOVE WITH
TROUGHING TO THE NORTH/WEST OF HAWAII AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE EAST.
BANN
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