670
AWUS01 KWNH 250019
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-250617-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1376
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
818 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 250017Z - 250617Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS LEADING TO
CONTINUED THREATS OF FLASH FLOODING OVER THE HIGH DESERT AREAS, AS
WELL AS THE SACRAMENTO AND GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL RATES
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR EXPECTED IN THE STRONGEST
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION REMAINS PREVALENT ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO BACK INTO THE TERRAIN OF THE
GUADALUPE AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WITH COPIOUS FLASH FLOOD
WARNINGS ON GOING. CURRENT ENVIRONMENT REMAINS PRIME FOR CONTINUED
IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AS PREVAILING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING
OVER AZ WILL LEAD TO A PERSISTENT FUNNELING OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
AND SMALL SHORTWAVES/MID-LEVEL PERTURBATIONS MOVING OUT OF MEXICO
INTO THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA. LATEST CAMS FAVOR A STEADY FOOTPRINT
OF CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BACK INTO
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO WITH A SMALL BREAK BACK TOWARDS FAR WEST
TEXAS, AT LEAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME THIS EVENING. HEAVY
RAIN AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOOD PROSPECTS REMAIN FORECAST FOR MUCH
OF SOUTHEASTERN NM, ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND
NEARBY SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WHERE SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC IMPACTS
HAVE ALREADY PROVIDED A DEGRADATION TO THE SOIL ABSORPTION
CAPABILITIES LEADING TO HEIGHTENED THREATS OF RUN OFF, OR ADDING
TO THE ALREADY OCCURRING FLOODING IN THE REGION. FURTHER
SOUTHWEST, A BIT LESS OF AN IMPACT WITH REGARDS TO THE ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS BACK TOWARDS EL PASO AND NEIGHBORING AREAS, HOWEVER
THESE AREAS ARE STILL SUBJECT TO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONING AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENCE AS AREAL PWATS SETTLE BETWEEN +2 TO +3 DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL WHEN ASSESSING THE LATEST NAEFS/ECENS OUTPUTS FOR THE
00Z/25 TIME FRAME.
RAINFALL TOTALS VIA CAMS SIGNAL SCATTERED TOTALS OF UP TO 2" WITH
SOME OF THE CAMS (HRRR/RRFS) SIGNALING CLOSER TO 2-4" IN THE
HARDEST HIT LOCATIONS TONIGHT. THIS MATCHES SOME OF THE HIGHER
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBS FOR THE 18Z HREF THAT BISECTED MUCH OF WEST TX
AND SOUTHEAST NM WITH 30-50% CHANCES OF EXCEEDING 3", ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHWESTERN EDDY COUNTY IN NM. RRFS/NAM NEST CONTINUE TO PIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AS FAR BACK AS EL PASO AND DONNA ANNA COUNTIES IN
FAR WEST TX WHICH WOULD ENTER INTO THE URBANIZED ZONES MORE PRONE
TO RUN OFF CAPABILITIES. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR, SCATTERED FLASH
FLOOD PROSPECTS WOULD BE A CERTAINTY GIVEN THE STATE OF THE
ENVIRONMENT IN THE AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY FOR THIS PERIOD
OVER THE OUTLINED AREA, ESPECIALLY AS WE MOVE BETWEEN 03-06Z AS A
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT OF MEXICO AND ENHANCES THE
CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER FAR WEST TX INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
NM.
KLEEBAUER
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...MAF...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 35320237 34920194 33760238 32100300 31550340
31030399 30680478 30850573 31490662 32120699
32960634 34560504 35140392
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