593
AWUS01 KWNH 250152
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-250750-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1377
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
952 PM EDT THU SEP 24 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN OK
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 250150Z - 250750Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE
THIS EVENING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTAIN RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5"/HR
AND SPREAD NORTHEAST, WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 3.5"
POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA. SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, WITH GREATER IMPACTS
EXPECTED WITHIN URBAN REGIONS.
DISCUSSION...LATEST GOES-EAST IR SATELLITE LOOP AND REGIONAL RADAR
INDICATE AN AXIS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHEAST WITHIN BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.. PWS RANGE FROM 1.4-1.7" IN THE REGION AND
OVERLAP WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF 1000-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE SPANNING
FROM SOUTHEAST NM TO CENTRAL OK AND SOUTHWEST KS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NOT ONLY MAINTAIN STRENGTH, BUT POTENTIALLY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES.
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM CURRENT 25
KTS TO ABOVE 35 KTS IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF
NORTHERN MEXICO.
OF THE LATEST AVAILABLE CAMS, THE 00Z HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE AN OKAY
HANDLE ON LATEST CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN NM INTO THE TX
PANHANDLE AND FORECASTS AN ADDITIONAL 2-3" FROM NEAR AMARILLO, TX
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN OK AND THE EASTERN OK PANHANDLE. FFG
INCREASES FAR AREAS EAST OF AMARILLO (2.5-3" PER 3-HRS), SO
IMPACTS ARE MOST LIKELY NEAR URBAN CENTERS AND CENTRAL/WESTERN
PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
ALIGNED IN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST FASHION.
SNELL
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 36819962 36549901 35799921 34950035 34430156
34520256 35060299 35600272 36280141
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