073
AWUS01 KWNH 250610
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-251210-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1378
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
209 AM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO, FAR WEST TEXAS, AND INTO
THE WESTERN CAP ROCK AND PERMIAN BASIN OF TEXAS
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 250610Z - 251210Z
SUMMARY...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NM AND FAR WEST TX ARE EXPECTED TO CONTAIN RAINFALL
RATES OF 1-2"/HR AND PASS OVER SATURATED/SENSITIVE TERRAIN THROUGH
EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF
FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED FROM ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF
2-3", WITH SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR, SATELLITE, AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICTS ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST AZ INTO FAR
NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ESTIMATED TO CONTAIN
RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR (LOCALLY HIGHER) AND ARE GENERALLY
MOVING IN A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. PWS WITHIN THIS REGION REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH AND IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE, WITH MUCAPE AROUND
500-1500 J/KG.
THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR THIS FLASH FLOOD THREAT; HOWEVER, WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTING PARALLEL TO THE MEAN FLOW
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AS WELL AS OVERLAPPING WITH INHERENTLY
SENSITIVE AND/OR SATURATED TERRAIN FROM THE PRIOR 24-HRS. THIS
MEAN LAYER FLOW IS ORIENTED MOSTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND
IS ALSO THE DIRECTION THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO LINE UP IN FAR
WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THIS CONCERNING SETUP WILL ALLOW
FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS OF RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2"/HR AND
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-4" FROM WEST TX INTO SOUTHEAST NM
AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE WESTERN TX PANHANDLE. FOR AREAS NEAR
CLOVIS, NM, THIS COULD ADD ONTO IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL FROM THE PAST
12 TO 24 HOURS, AS WELL AS PRIOR REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING, AND
WILL EXACERBATE FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE POINT WHERE SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE. AREAS NEAR THE HYDROLOGICALLY SENSITIVE
SACRAMENTO MTS ARE ALSO AT RISK FOR THESE IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES AND RAPID RUNOFF. A DEVELOPING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH AND
EAST OF LUBBOCK, TX IN THE TX PANHANDLE IS ALSO A FEATURE THAT
WILL PLAY A ROLE IN CONTINUED MOIST ASCENT AND LINGERING MODERATE
RAINFALL AHEAD OF THIS MAIN BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS.
EVEN WITH THE TRAINING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL, THE AFOREMENTIONED
SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CLEAR THE REGION LATER THIS MORNING (AFTER 12Z), BUT THIS STILL
ALLOWS FOR ABOUT 6 ADDITIONAL HOURS OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
SNELL
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...LUB...MAF...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 34660364 34590268 33890230 32220307 31100418
30770520 30920605 31360639 32100629 32750644
33300713 33830681 33860569 34040472
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