991
AWUS01 KWNH 251759
FFGMPD
COZ000-NMZ000-AZZ000-252300-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1379
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
159 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...ADJ EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA..SOUTH-CENTRAL COLORADO...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 251800Z - 252300Z
SUMMARY...POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED CELLS CAPABLE OF QUICK 1"
TOTALS POSING FOCUSED/LOCALIZED INCIDENT(S) OF FLASH FLOODING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV SUITE DEPICTS ELONGATED/FILLING CLOSED LOW
CENTER ALONG THE CENTRAL AZ/NM BORDER SLOWLY LIFTING ENE, WITH A
WELL DEFINED IF NOT A BIT NARROW DOWNSTREAM DRY SLOT ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY NOSING TOWARD NORTHEAST NM. CIRA LPW DELINEATES
THIS A BIT BETTER ESPECIALLY IN THE 700-500MB LAYER, WITH CORE OF
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND AND STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE/OLD CONNECTING TROWAL INTO SW CO, WITH
.4-.5" VALUES IN THE CORE. AMV AND VWP ACROSS AZ AND E NM ALSO
HIGHLIGHT THE SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH 15-20KTS OF NNW QUICKLY
SHIFTING TOWARD 15-20KTS OUT OF THE SSW, SUPPLYING SOLID MID-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE EASTERN TIGHTENING GRADIENT OF MOISTURE.
LINGERING SURFACE TO 850MB MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ACROSS THE PLATEAU
AND SO TOTAL PWAT VALUES REMAIN AT AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
AVERAGE IN THE .75-.9" RANGE; THOUGH THERE IS STILL A
SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OUT OF THE DESERT SW OF CENTRAL AZ, THAT IS
CONFLUENT THROUGH THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM INTO THE AREA OF
CONCERN AND CONVERGENCE AXIS.
WHILE, THERE IS SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE CORE OF THE
UPPER-LOW, CLEARER SKIES DOWNSTREAM WITH MORNING INSOLATION HAS
BROUGHT INCREASING INSTABILITY FIELDS ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT
AND CONVERGENCE AXIS, WITH SBCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000+ J/KG. AS
SUCH, WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LOW, POSITIVE
VORTICITY ADVECTION AND AFOREMENTIONED CONVERGENCE IN THE
CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIR HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NOTED IN VISIBLE AND REGIONAL RADAR
MOSAIC. INITIALLY, RATES OF .5-.75"/HR, SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY
IMPROVE AS DOWNSTREAM CONTINUES TO HEAT WITH SOME WEST TO EAST
MOISTURE ADVECTION, PERHAPS RESULTING IN HOURLY RATES TOWARD 1.5"
GIVEN 20KTS OF INFLOW NEAR CLOUD BASE. DEEP LAYER FLOW TOWARD THE
NE WOULD SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR REPEATING ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE AXIS, BUT SPACING MAY BE TOO GREAT AND SLOW EASTWARD
PROPAGATION OF THE AXIS WILL LIKELY LIMIT OVERALL TOTALS. AS
SUCH, SUB-HOURLY TOTALS OF .5-1" ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW NM INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL NM. RUGGED TERRAIN, BURN SCARS AND RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL THAT HAS SATURATED THE LIMITED DEEP SOILS IN THE REGION,
SUGGESTS RUN-OFF WILL BE GREATER THAN NORMAL AND MAY RESULT IN
HIGHLY LOCALIZED ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED INCIDENT OR TWO OF
FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...FGZ...GJT...PUB...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 38030756 37900645 37090584 35920569 34440616
33720731 33910928 34910963 35990938 37460835
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