935
AWUS01 KWNH 251833
FFGMPD
TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-260030-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1380
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
232 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WESTERN
TX PANHANDLE...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 251835Z - 260030Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED UPSLOPE CONVECTION IN WAKE OF VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS TO RESULT IN SPOTS OF 1-2.5"
TOTALS ESPECIALLY IN TERRAIN AND LEAD TO POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING EVENTS THROUGH EVENING.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV SUITE DEPICTS A STRONG, WELL DEFINED CLOSED
LOW CENTERED ALONG THE AZ/NM BORDER WITH EXTENDING MID-LEVEL TROF
AXIS TOWARD AN EFFECTIVE TRIPLE POINT/SECONDARY SHORTWAVE FEATURE
OVER SE CO. THIS IS LEADING TO SOLID UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. TRADITIONAL
SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER SE CO IS ALSO HELPING TO ACCELERATE
SURFACE TO 850MB FLOW NORTHWARD AS WELL AND PERHAPS NOT RESULTING
IN STRONG CONVERGENCE ON THE COLORADO SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE, BUT
NEAR THE LOW SHOULD SUPPORT STRONG MOISTURE FLUX FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
CIRA LPW/LVT SHOWS ENHANCED MOISTURE, CORE OF THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT IS NOW LIFTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS, THOUGH LINGERING
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS REMAINS BANKED ACROSS NE NM/SE CO
WITH VALUES OF 1-1.25"; THOUGH FURTHER SOUTH, RETURN FLOW CAN BE
SEEN OUT OF THE PERMIAN BASIN AND TRANS-PECOS REGION TO FILL BACK
1.25+ TOTAL PWATS INTO THE HARDEST HIT AREAS OF SE NM.
GOES-E VISIBLE ALSO SHOWS THE MAIN CORE OF CLOUDS HAVE MOVED OUT
AND FULL INSOLATION IS ALREADY OCCURRING WITH BUILDING CU ALONG
THE MAIN RIDGE LINES IN THE UPSLOPE FLOW. MOUNTAIN CYCLE ENHANCED
BY STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT FROM APPROACHING DRY SLOT WILL
FURTHER HELP STRENGTHEN UPDRAFTS IN THE COMING HOURS, WITH MLCAPES
ALREADY BUILDING TO 1000-1500 J/KG IN THE SACRAMENTO RANGE AND
WEST TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SLOWLY RISING ABOVE 500 THROUGH THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO WITH EXPECTATION OF 1000-1500 J/KG IN SE CO IN
THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. THOUGH AS CORE OF OVERALL MOISTURE IS
LEAVING, THE OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE REDUCING A BIT; HOWEVER,
WITH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW, EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINS
SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. ADDITIONALLY, STEERING IS
STILL MORE SOUTH TO NORTH, ESPECIALLY FURTHER SOUTH INTO SE NM/W
TX. BEST CONVERGENCE IN UPSLOPE REGIME WITH HEIGHT-FALLS STILL
UPSTREAM, MAY ALLOW FOR PROLONGED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SLOPE
LINES TO RESULT IN EFFECTIVE BACK-BUILDING, REPEATING NATURE IN
THE TERRAIN. SO WITH 1.5"/HR RATES AND POTENTIAL INCREASED
RESIDENCY OF A FEW HOURS, SUGGESTS SCATTERED SPOTS OF 1-2.5"
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE EVOLUTION NOTED IN
THE RRFS, WHICH APPEARS MOST AGGRESSIVE BUT SUPPORTED BY OTHER 12Z
ARW/ARW2 AND RECENT HRRR SOLUTIONS IN OVERALL CHARACTER/EVOLUTION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
GIVEN THE STRONG RATES AND OVERALL TOTALS, INCIDENTS OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE CONSIDERED LIKELY THOUGH WIDELY SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE, BUT IN PARTICULAR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MPD
AREA IN SACRAMENTO RANGE, DAVIS RANGE AND ANY CELLS IN SE NM WHERE
FFG VALUES ARE COMPROMISED BELOW 1.5" IN MOST LOCATIONS (EVEN
THOUGH 6HR TIME LENGTH).
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...PUB...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 38030403 37530351 35640388 34520321 33240329
32280342 31640330 30940297 30290378 30580520
31870653 33790631 35510592 36940551 37780492
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