419
AWUS01 KWNH 260113
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-260710-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1381
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
912 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO INTO
THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 260110Z - 260710Z
SUMMARY...AN AXIS OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTAINING RAINFALL RATES OF 1-2"/HR TRACKING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN FOR
A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS AND LEAD TO A CONTINUED RISK FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY LIKELY
IN SENSITIVE TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, URBAN AREAS, AND
REGIONS WITH SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS FROM PRIOR RAINFALL OVER
THE LAST DAY OR SO.
DISCUSSION...RECENT REGIONAL RADAR DATA AND GOES-EAST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS ORIENTED WEST-SOUTHWEST
TO EAST-NORTHEAST FROM CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND
CONTAINING MRMS ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2"/HR AT TIMES.
THIS ORIENTATION IS PARALLEL TO THE MEAN-LAYER FLOW AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH OVERHEAD AND AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX. PWS IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BANKED
AGAINST THE TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ARE AROUND 1-1.2",
WITH MLCAPE REMAINING SUFFICIENT AND IN THE 1500-2500 J/KG RANGE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 3
TO 6 HOURS, WHILE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHEAST. EVEN WITH THE GRADUAL
MOVEMENT OF THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, LOW FFGS AND
SENSITIVE TERRAIN (AS WELL AS ONGOING FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS) PROMPT
THE LIKELY EXPECTATION OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.
RECENT 21Z RRFS AND 00Z HRRR WEAKEN THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY THIS
EVENING, BUT GIVEN RECENT PARAMETERS AND RADAR IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAINTAIN POTENT UPDRAFTS AND ORGANIZATION FOR
AT LEAST A FEW ADDITIONAL HOURS UNTIL THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE
CLEARS THE REGION TO THE NORTHWEST AND INSTABILITY WANES OVERNIGHT.
SNELL
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...LUB...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...
LAT...LON 35680410 35570293 34650276 33890419 33110685
33720744 34770620
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