065
AWUS01 KWNH 260326
FFGMPD
KSZ000-NEZ000-260825-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1382
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1125 PM EDT FRI SEP 25 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO PARTS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN NEBRASKA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 260325Z - 260825Z
SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH ESTIMATED RAINFALL RATES UP TO 2.5"/HR MAY TRAIN OVER
SIMILAR AREAS AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL/EASTERN
NEBRASKA. THIS COULD LEAD TO SCATTERED RAINFALL TOTALS OVER 3" AND
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR AND GOES-EAST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS STRENGTHENING THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS AHEAD
OF A LIFTING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE/MCV. MRMS ESTIMATES HOURLY RATES
BRIEFLY NEAR 3" WITHIN THIS COMPLEX AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES NORTHWARD.
PWS WITHIN THE AREA RANGE FROM 1.75-1.9" AND ARE ABOVE THE 99TH
CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE PER THE NAEFS SAT. ADDITIONALLY, MLCAPE
REMAINS ABOVE 500 J/KG, BUT IS GREATER ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND
MUCH LOWER INTO EASTERN NE. THEREFORE, RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHEST IN NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND INTO NEARBY ADJACENT NE, WITH
COVERAGE OF MODERATE RAINFALL BECOMING GREATER AS THE NIGHT GOES
ON IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NE, EXCEPT WITHOUT THE HIGHER RATES
NECESSARY FOR FLASH FLOODING.
WITH THESE PARAMETERS IN PLACE, AS WELL AS MEAN-LAYER FLOW OUT OF
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND PARALLEL TO THE CURRENT AXIS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS, THE GREATEST SHORT-TERM
FLASH FLOOD THREAT IS ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS. SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WHERE RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEED 2-3" GIVEN THE
LOCAL FFG IN THE AREA. LASTEST MRMS SUGGESTS THIS HAS ALREADY BEEN
ACHIEVED NEAR OSBORNE, KS AND HREF/REFS NEIGHBORHOOD PROBABILITIES
FOR AT LEAST 2" THROUGH 09Z ARE 20-30%. HOWEVER, COVERAGE OF THESE
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW ENOUGH FOR ONLY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THE HIGHLIGHTED
REGION AND A GREATER FOCUS IN NORTH-CENTRAL KS AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED.
SNELL
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GID...ICT...OAX...TOP...
ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...
LAT...LON 41769765 41499663 40709666 39829723 39129811
39049901 39339945 40159949 41229881
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