617
FXHW01 KWNH 260735
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
335 AM EDT SAT SEP 26 2026
VALID 00Z SUN 27 SEP 2026 - 00Z SUN 04 OCT 2026
...VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT FLOODING EXPECTED FOR
THE EASTERN ISLANDS AS HURRICANE NOLO TRACKS SOUTH OF THE CHAIN...
HALTED BY A STRONG RIDGE TO THE NORTH, HURRICANE NOLO WILL BEGIN
TO TRACK WESTWARD SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS NEAR 17N. THE STORM IS
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS WESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNTIL AROUND MONDAY
WHEN IT BEGINS TO RESUME A NORTHWARD TRACK WEST OF 160W WHILE
NAVIGATING A CORRIDOR BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY POSITIONED NORTHWEST OF HAWAII. THE GLOBAL
GUIDANCE BEGINS TO DIVERGE NOTABLY BY LATE MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS NORTH OF 20N; HOWEVER, THE OVERALL CONSENSUS KEEPS THE
STORM'S CENTER WELL WEST OF THE WESTERN ISLANDS AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD BEFORE TAKING ANOTHER LEFT TURN AS IT COMES UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ANOTHER RIDGE BUILDING TO ITS NORTH.
DESPITE NOLO REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS DURING ITS
WESTWARD PASS, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STORM AND THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL SUPPORT STRONG EASTERLY FLOW AND
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE EASTERN ISLANDS. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS COULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES, ESPECIALLY
IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TO THE NORTH, IT
MAY DRAW DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS BEFORE A DRIER
AIRMASS SPREADING FROM THE NORTHEAST BEGINS TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
ISLAND CHAIN MID-TO-LATE NEXT WEEK.
REFER TO THE ADVISORIES/STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR LATEST INFORMATION REGARDING HURRICANE NOLO.
PEREIRA
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