817
FXHW01 KWNH 020911
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
511 AM EDT FRI OCT 2 2026
VALID 00Z SAT 03 OCT 2026 - 00Z SAT 10 OCT 2026
AS HURRICANE NOLO CONTINUES TO PULL WEST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS,
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MORE TYPICAL
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WITH A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIRMASS FRIDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY (COVERAGE) DURING THIS TIME WILL
BECOME MORE LIMITED -- CONFINED TO FAVORED WINDWARD MOUNTAIN
AREAS.
BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WEST OF THE
STATE, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DISRUPT THE TRADES AND CAUSE THE
DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY. AS THIS OCCURS, TROPICAL MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.75-2.00") WILL BE DRAWN UP ACROSS THE STATE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/CMC)
DO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE EASTWARD EXTEND OF THE MOISTURE RESURGENCE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS, AND TO WHAT DEGREE RAIN CHANCES/COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE BY NEXT WED-FRI.
HURLEY
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