180
FXHW01 KWNH 030858
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
458 AM EDT SAT OCT 3 2026
VALID 00Z SUN 04 OCT 2026 - 00Z SUN 11 OCT 2026
AS HURRICANE NOLO CONTINUES TO PULL FARTHER WEST OF THE STATE, A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD BACK ACROSS THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE
MORE TYPICAL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WITH A DRIER, MORE STABLE
AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY (COVERAGE)
DURING THIS TIME WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED -- CONFINED TO FAVORED
WINDWARD MOUNTAIN AREAS.
BY MID-LATE NEXT WEEK, MID-UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY WEST OF THE
STATE, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DISRUPT THE TRADES AND CAUSE THE
DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY. AS THIS OCCURS, TROPICAL MOISTURE
(PWATS 1.75-2.00") WILL BE DRAWN UP ACROSS THE STATE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ISLANDS. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/CMC)
DO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LATER NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD HAVE AN
INFLUENCE ON THE EASTWARD EXTEND OF THE MOISTURE RESURGENCE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS, AND TO WHAT DEGREE RAIN CHANCES/COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE BY MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HURLEY
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