079
FXHW01 KWNH 040915
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
515 AM EDT SUN OCT 4 2026
VALID 00Z MON 05 OCT 2026 - 00Z MON 12 OCT 2026
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE MORE
TYPICAL EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WITH A DRIER, MORE STABLE
AIRMASS THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY
(COVERAGE) DURING THIS TIME WILL BECOME MORE LIMITED -- CONFINED
TO FAVORED WINDWARD MOUNTAIN AREAS.
BY THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK, A MID-UPPER TROUGH
WILL AMPLIFY WEST OF THE STATE, WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY DISRUPT THE
TRADES AND CAUSE THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY. AS
THIS OCCURS, TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS 1.75-2.00") WILL BE DRAWN UP
ACROSS THE STATE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ISLANDS. THE GLOBAL MODELS (GFS/ECMWF/CMC) DO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES
WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BY
LATE NEXT WEEK, WHICH WOULD HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON THE EASTWARD
EXTEND OF THE MOISTURE RESURGENCE ACROSS THE ISLANDS, AND TO WHAT
DEGREE RAIN CHANCES/COVERAGE WILL INCREASE BY MIDWEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
HURLEY
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