546
FXHW01 KWNH 090629
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
229 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VALID 00Z SAT 10 OCT 2026 - 00Z SAT 17 OCT 2026
A STRONG MID TO UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND NEAR 30N
165-170W WILL CONTINUE A SLOW PROPAGATION OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
BEFORE WEAKENING SIGNIFICANTLY COME SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE
DISTURBANCE FULLY DECAYED BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. PWAT
ANOMALIES WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY BUT SLOWLY WANING
INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED HEAVY RAINFALL PROSPECTS
WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD OF ELEVATED PWATS WITH THE GREATEST
THREAT OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THE THREAT
LINGERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL SEE A SMALL BREAK IN THE HEAVY
RAIN PROSPECTS, BUT A WEAK DISTURBANCE STEMMING FROM A PINCHED OFF
MID-LEVEL VORTICITY STREAM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MEANDER TO THE
WEST WITH A CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE ISLAND COME SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS COULD TRIGGER A BIT MORE OF A
CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE BIG ISLAND ON THESE DAYS, BUT NOT
ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE LESS THAN FORMIDABLE
PWATS IN PLACE. GREATEST THREAT IS LIKELY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
BEFORE THE LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER THE PACIFIC CHANGES AND WE SEE A
RETURN TO A TYPICAL TRADE-WIND PATTERN OVER THE REGION AS BROAD
RIDGING RETURNS TO THE NORTH PACIFIC. SOME MODEST MOISTURE FLUXES
WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW TRIGGERING SLIGHT
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS,
ALBEIT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS JUNCTURE.
KLEEBAUER
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