816
AWUS01 KWNH 100216
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-100800-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1465
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1016 PM EDT FRI OCT 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...BIG BEND OF FLORIDA INTO SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
GEORGIA...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 100215Z - 100800Z
SUMMARY...TRAINING EASTERN OUTER BANDS OF HURRICANE ISAIAS.
DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS ISAIAS HAS MADE LANDFALL
FURTHER WEST NEAR DESTIN. THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF ISAIAS IS ALSO
STARTING TO TAKE ON MORE EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WITH A
BROADENING DRY SLOT ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN EDGE TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST INTO THE BIG BEND OF THE NORTHEAST GULF OF AMERICA,
WHILE THE INNER CORE IS STARTING TO BROADEN FURTHER ENHANCING THE
INNER CORE BAND WITHIN THE EASTERN QUADRANT CURRENTLY ORIENTED
FROM E FRANKLIN COUNTY BACK TOWARD JACKSON COUNTY. THIS WILL BE A
NARROWER BAND BUT STILL HAVE STRONGER SPEED AND THEREFORE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE FOR EFFICIENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND CAPABILITY OF
2-3"/HR. SLOW EASTWARD DRIFT WILL CONTINUE AS ISAIAS WOBBLES
NORTHWARD, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE NARROW NATURE OF THE BAND THE HEAVY
RAINFALL FOOTPRINT WILL BE SMALLER BUT MOVING THROUGH AREAS
ALREADY UNDER FLASH FLOODING WARNINGS. ADDITIONAL STRIPE OF 2-4"
ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE INTO FAR SE AL, SW GA WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE IN FLOODING CONDITIONS.
FURTHER EAST...
THE MAIN OUTER BAND REMAINS BEST ALIGNED WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OF THE CYCLONE AND TRAPS THE GREATEST MOISTURE CONTENT
THROUGH DEPTH IN A DEEPLY CONFLUENT FLOW FROM SURFACE THROUGH
700MB WITH 60 TO 75 DEGREES OF CONFLUENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF
TOWARD THE INTERSECTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN
FLORIDA. TOTAL PWAT VALUES REMAIN AROUND 2.5" IN THIS OUTER BAND.
IN ADDITION, WARM WATERS AND HIGHER THETA-E VALUES HELP TO
MAINTAIN A MODESTLY BROAD INSTABILITY AXIS GENERALLY ALIGNED OR
SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE WCB, MOISTURE STREAM. SATURATED PROFILES
WITH MLCAPES OVER 1000-1500 J/KG, AND IVT VALUES OF 700-850 KG/M/S
PER CIRA LVT LAYERS OVER 200 KG/M/S THROUGH 500MB SHOULD SUPPORT
FLUX FOR 3"/HR RATES WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER CAPABILITY TOWARD 4"
LOCALLY. UNLIKE THE BAND FURTHER WEST, IT IS GOING TO REMAIN
BROADER AND SLOWER IN EASTWARD PROGRESSION. THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY TO LONGEVITY OF CONVERGENCE UPSTREAM OVER THE SOURCE
REGION FOR EXTREME LOCALIZED TOTALS, BUT THERE REMAIN SOME
SUGGESTIONS FOR A STRIPE OF ADDITIONAL 4-5" TOTALS ACROSS THE BIG
BEND NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN GA. OVERALL TOTALS WILL LIKELY
REDUCE FURTHER NORTH AS DRY SLOT EXPANDS NORTHEASTWARD AND OVERALL
MOISTURE VALUES THROUGH DEPTH DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AND INSTABILITY
MAY REDUCE VERTICAL VIGOR THROUGH SOUTHERN GEORGIA. STILL 2-4"
TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH WILL HELP TO EXPAND AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 31708495 31708377 31438297 30938261 30198248
29148264 29118300 29458338 29908383 29988416
29748453 29618496 30138504 30768545 31118563
31508546
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