608
AWUS01 KWNH 100326
FFGMPD
SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-100900-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1467
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1125 PM EDT FRI OCT 09 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NORTHEAST FLORIDA...GEORGIA...SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 100325Z - 100900Z
SUMMARY...SLOW MOVING, POTENTIALLY BACK-BUILDING SUPERCELLS NEAR
LIFTING COASTAL FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL LOCALIZED INCIDENTS
OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO 2-3"/HR RATES.
DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE INFLECTION
NEAR, JUST NORTH OF ORLANDO ALONG THE OLDER STATIONARY FRONT.
GOES-E 3.9UM SWIR LOOP AND THETA-E GRADIENT ANALYSIS SUGGEST THE
SURFACE FRONT REMAINS ALONG THE FIRST COAST LIFTING NORTHWARD
WHERE IT BECOMES A BIT MORE ILL-DEFINED ALONG THE SE GA COAST
BEFORE SHARPENING AGAIN NEAR 31N. LOW LEVEL WIND RESPONSE HAS
RESULTED IN STRONG MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
BOUNDARY FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BLOSSOM THROUGH THE
LAST FEW HOURS, ESPECIALLY NEAR DUVAL COUNTY AND ALONG THE FRONT
THAT EXTENDS EASTWARD ALONG 31N. VERY HIGH TDS IN THE UPPER 70S
WITH STILL SOME MODEST TEMPERATURES DIFFERENCES IN THE LOW 80S
MAINTAINS A SOLID CONDITIONALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PROXIMITY TO
THE FRONT AND THEREFORE THE COAST. STRONGLY VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND
PROFILE INCLUDING WIND SPEED MAINTAINS SOLID HELICITY AND BULK
SHEAR FOR MODEST UPDRAFT ROTATION. THIS FURTHER INCREASES MOISTURE
FLUX CONVERGENCE INTO THE UPDRAFT FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION OF 2-3"/HR RATES. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHERLY INFLOW ALONG
THE UPWIND FLANK HAS REDUCED FORWARD SPEEDS TO ALLOW FOR INCREASED
RESIDENCY ACROSS AND IN PROXIMITY TO THE JACKSONVILLE METRO
RESULTING IN LOCALIZED 2-4" TOTALS IN 1-2 HOURS RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
THIS ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN/CONTINUE BUT SLOWLY SHIFT
NORTHWARD ALONG THE GA COAST. IN ADDITION, RAP FORECAST OF
SOUTHEASTERLY 850MB WINDS WILL FURTHER PRESS THE STATIONARY FRONT
TOWARD THE CENTRAL SC COAST AS WELL. THIS WILL BRING MLCAPES
TOWARD 1500-2000 J/KG. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND VEERING SOUTHWARD TO
FURTHER INCREASE CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
BUT MAINTAIN POTENTIAL FOR BACK-BUILDING/REDEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL SUPPORT CELLS TO REMAIN IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO COASTAL LOCATIONS INCLUDING SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON,
SC THOUGH MOST OF THE LATE MORNING...THOUGH TRENDS ARE FOR A
SLIGHT DELAY IN ARRIVAL FURTHER NORTH. ADDITIONALLY, BEST
CONVERGENCE MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE, AS MAY THE CELLS WHICH WOULD
OBVIOUSLY REDUCE ANY POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. STILL, THE
PROXIMITY REMAINS CLOSE AND WITH SUCH HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL
RATES, RAPID INUNDATION FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 32558075 32238049 31708096 31568105 30878135
29998125 29658153 29998193 30948213 31778186
32358137
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