005
AWUS01 KWNH 100517
FFGMPD
GAZ000-ALZ000-100900-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1466...CORRECTED
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
115 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
CORRECTED FOR IN CONCERNING LINE...FLASH FLOODING CONSIDERED LIKELY
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA...WEST CENTRAL
GEORGIA...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 100300Z - 100900Z
SUMMARY...INNER CORE OF ISAIAS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO BROADER,
PROLONGED MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHIELD
ACROSS. BROAD 2-3" TOTALS WITH EMBEDDED HIGHER 3-4" TOTALS
THROUGH 09Z, LIKELY TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION...EVEN A HOUR OR SO AFTER LANDFALL, THE BROADER
NORTHERN BAND OF ISAIAS IS STARTING TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE
FOR THE HIGHEST REFLECTIVITY AND THEREFORE RATES STILL OVER
2.5-3"/HR AS IT IS CROSSING OUT OF FLORIDA INTO S ALABAMA.
HOWEVER, THE DOWNSTREAM MODERATE RAINFALL RATE SHIELD CONTINUES TO
EXPAND ACROSS CENTRAL AL INTO W GA TAKING ON A MORE TRADITIONAL
BAROCLINIC COMMA HEAD APPEARANCE IN REGIONAL RADAR. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING OF THE TROWAL AS THE GRADIENT
FURTHER TIGHTENS IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE OF THE CIRCULATION AND
ENTERING THE BROADENING ENTRANCE REGION OF THE 70-90KT 300MB JET
THAT EXPANDS ACROSS N MS, N AL, ALL OF TN INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. SOLID EASTERLY MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE ATLANTIC
COMBINED WITH SOUTHEASTERLY MOISTURE FLUX STILL OVER 70KTS ALONG
THE WESTERN BRANCH OF THE TROWAL (DENOTED WELL BY THE REMAINING
INNER EASTERN BAND CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
ARCHING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AL. EMBEDDED 1-2"/HR RATES
COULD STILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE DEFORMATION ZONE/INTERFACE WITH
WITH THE TROWAL, THOUGH THE OVERALL SHIELD RATES OF .5-1"/HR WILL
CONTINUE TO COMPOUND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS A RESULT, A
BROAD AREA OF 2-3" IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
AL WITH A FEW STRIPES OF 3-4"+ ALONG THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE
SHIELD IN SE AL/SW GA/W CENTRAL GA OVER A 6HR PERIOD. FFG VALUES
ALREADY COMPROMISED ACROSS S AL ARE STILL LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED
BUT STARTING TO SHIFT FROM THE 1HR AND 3HR EXCEEDANCE TOWARD THE
3HR AND 6HR EXCEEDANCE. FURTHER NORTH, 3-6HR FFG VALUES OF 3-4"
AND 4-5" RESPECTIVELY ARE LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED LOCALLY AND GIVEN
THE BROAD FOOTPRINT, FLASH FLOODING WILL START TO SHIFT MORE OVER
TOWARD MAIN STEM/RIVERINE FLOODING (PLEASE REFER TO AHD FROM
NATIONAL WATER CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS).
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...MOB...TAE...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 33738506 33408422 32598376 31858404 31518556
31118593 31078684 31778756 32428791 33238768
33728683
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