453
AWUS01 KWNH 100822
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-101400-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1468
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
421 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST GEORGIA...ADJ.
EAST-CENTRAL AL & FAR UPSTATE SC...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 100820Z - 101400Z
SUMMARY...AXIS OF PROLONGED MODERATE RAINFALL WITH OCCASIONAL
EMBEDDED BURSTS UP TO 1"/HR. BROAD AREA OF 2-3"/6HRS MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS THOUGH MOSTLY ACROSS URBAN OR
TYPICALLY PRONE AREAS.
DISCUSSION...GOES-E 3.9UM LOOP SHOWS ISAIAS HAS RAPIDLY
DETERIORATED IN VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND HAS TRANSITIONED TOWARD
AN EXTRA-TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SHAPE AND STRUCTURE. AS A RESULT,
FRONTAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT HAS BEGUN TO BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE CORE NEAR THE
DEEPENING MID-LEVEL LOW IN CENTRAL AL. AT THE SURFACE, STRONG
NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW IS HELPING TO REINFORCE, STRENGTHEN
FGEN AS THE WARM SECTOR IS TRYING TO ADVANCE NORTHWARD AS WELL.
THIS IS STEEPENING THE ISENTROPES ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA TO
COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THOUGH MAINTAINING STRONG CONFLUENT INFLOW
ALONG THE COOL CONVEYOR BELT.
WARM CONVEYOR MOISTURE AND HIGHER THETA-E REMAINS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF OF AMERICA AND IS ASCENDING ACROSS THE FRONT WITH
DEEP AMPLE MOISTURE AND STILL IN THE 2-2.25" RANGE NEAR THE
EFFECTIVE TRIPLE POINT NEAR COLUMBUS, GA. MODEST CONDITIONALLY
UNSTABLE AIR WITH MUCAPES OF 500-750 J/KG ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
OVER THE SLOWLY LIFTING WARM FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GA AS WELL;
BROAD VEERING/WAA 850-700MB PROFILES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT SOME
SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE FOR SLANT-WISE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WITH A
SE TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE TROWAL AND WILL LIKELY BE
TRANSVERSE/ORTHOGONAL TO A SHARP DEFORMATION ZONE THAT BISECTS GA
FROM COLUMBUS TO UPSTATE SC WHICH ALSO APPEARS TO BE THE BEST
VERTICAL ASCENT/DIVERGENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE BROAD RIGHT ENTRANCE
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. AS SUCH, BROAD .5"-.75"/HR RATES WILL
HAVE EMBEDDED POTENTIAL FOR THOSE SE TO NW REPEATING SLANT-WISE
ASCENT ELEMENTS THAT COULD BE UP TO 1-1.25"/HR OCCASIONALLY. AS
SUCH, A SLOW RISE OF RAINFALL TOTALS ALONG THE AXIS MAY REACH
LONGER DURATION FFG VALUES IN THE 3-6HR RANGE THOUGH IMPACTS
ACROSS METRO ATLANTA AND OTHER URBAN CENTERS ALONG THE AXIS WILL
POSE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SLOW RISE FLOODING CONCERNS. AS
SUCH, FLASH FLOODING IS CONSIDERED POSSIBLE BUT DEFINITELY
TRANSITIONING FROM A RAPID RISE TOWARD A BROADER AREAL, SLOW RISE
OF RUN-OFF AND STREAM/MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO
ANY AHD PRODUCTS FROM THE NATIONAL WATER CENTER.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...GSP...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...
LAT...LON 34748306 33868284 33008323 32318396 32108504
32618546 33798500 34338455 34738388
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