818
AWUS01 KWNH 100905
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-101500-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1469
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
505 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL PLAIN OF GEORGIA & SOUTH CAROLINA...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 100905Z - 101500Z
SUMMARY...NEAR COASTAL, SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH CAPABILITY
OF 2-3"/HR RATES AND LOCALIZED TOTALS OF 3-5" MAY RESULT IN RAPID
INUNDATION FLOODING, ESPECIALLY NEAR URBAN CENTERS.
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT OF
POST T.C. ISAIAS LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH SW GA INTO NORTHERN GA;
THOUGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SHARPEN
BETWEEN THE COAST AND THE GULF STREAM RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING
FGEN AND SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST
NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL SC COAST BEFORE THE FRONT ANGLES MORE DUE
EAST AROUND 31.7N. VWP AND RAP ANALSYS CONTINUE TO SHOW 850 TO
700MB CONFLUENT FLOW FROM THE OUTER BAND NEARING THE CENTRAL WEST
COAST OF FL ACROSS TO THE EAST COAST WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT NOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE PENINSULA. TOTAL PWATS
REMAIN VERY HIGH OVER 2.25", BUT MOSTLY DRIVEN BELOW THE BOUNDARY
LAYER GIVEN UPPER 70S TO A SPOT OR TWO OF 80F TDS TO FEED THE HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. A WEDGE OF ENHANCED MLCAPES
ALONG THE GULF STREAM IS NOSING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FRONTAL
ZONE/CONVERGENCE AXIS HELPING TO FURTHER SPUR NEW DEVELOPMENT
THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR IN THE GEORGIA BIGHT. HOWEVER, RECENTLY
NEW CELLS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST AS WELL.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE NEW DEVELOPING
STATIONARY FRONT AXIS (NOTED WELL IN THETA-E GRAIDENT) THAT
CROSSES SOUTHERN GA FROM THE CENTER OF ISAIAS ACROSS TO HILTON
HEAD ISLAND. VALUES OF 40 TO 70KTS, SUGGEST INCREASING
ORGANIZATION AND ROTATING UPDRAFTS NEAR THE FRONT WILL SLOW
NORTHWARD PROPAGATION WHILE ADDITIONALLY INCREASING LOCALIZED
MOISTURE FLUX TO SUPPORT 2-3"/HR RATES. HI-RES CAMS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE STORM SCALE CONVERGENCE FOR DEVELOPMENT THOUGH
HRRR APPEARS TO BE SIMULATING THE RECENT COASTAL DEVELOPMENT
BETTER THAN THE WOFS AND ARW SOLUTIONS THAT FAVOR CORES IN THE
CENTER OF THE GULF STREAM. STILL, GIVEN EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION SPOTS OF 2-5" ARE POSSIBLE AND WHILE BEING ALONG THE
SANDY COASTAL PLAIN, THERE ARE SUFFICIENT URBAN LOCATIONS THAT
LOCALIZED RAPID INUNDATION FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS, SLOWLY EXPANDING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL GA
TOWARD SAVANNAH AND EVENTUALLY NEAR CHARLESTON, SC.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...ILM...JAX...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 33737925 33357895 32607987 32308040 31928087
31368120 31058131 31218182 32048185 32838158
33418101 33728020
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