963
AWUS01 KWNH 101527
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-102125-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1471
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1125 AM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...FL BIG BEND/NORTH FL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
GA...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC...SOUTHEAST NC
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 101525Z - 102125Z
SUMMARY...LOCALLY SLOW-MOVING BANDS AND CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND LOCALIZED
PERSISTENCE OF THESE RATES WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER A THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-E VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
WITH RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWS BROKEN BANDS AND
CLUSTERS OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH THE GREATER CONCENTRATIONS OF
ACTIVITY GENERALLY NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC, AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT ACROSS THE FL BIG BEND/NORTH FL VICINITY AND INTO
FAR SOUTHERN GA.
DEEP LAYER MOIST/UNSTABLE FLOW CONTINUES TO INFILTRATE MUCH OF THE
REGION AROUND THE FAR EASTERN FLANKS OF POST-T.C. ISAIAS, WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG, AND PWS GENERALLY AROUND 2.25+
INCHES. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG THERMODYNAMICS AND DEEP
MOISTURE ALONG WITH A BELT OF 30 TO 40+ KT EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
VALUES SHOULD COMBINE WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND FOCUSED
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR A GRADUAL UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
THE GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION AND GENERALLY THE HIGHER
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD TEND TO BE ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY/PEE DEE
REGION, WHERE RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING SOME VERY
WELL-ORGANIZED AND SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING
ONSHORE AND ALSO OFFSHORE OF THE SC COAST. SOME OF THE ENHANCED
FOCUS OF THIS CONVECTION IS IN RESPONSE TO A STRONG NEARBY WARM
FRONT WHICH IS ENHANCING FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A STRONG
SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL JET OVERRUNNING IT. THE HRRR IS ADVERTISING
LOCALLY SOME VERY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS GIVEN THE SLOW CELL-MOTIONS.
AREAS FARTHER SOUTH DOWN ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GA AND
ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTH FL AND THE FL BIG BEND WILL HAVE THE FOCUS
OF A SURFACE TROUGH AND APPROACHING UPSTREAM COLD FRONT THAT WILL
DRIVE THE LOW-LEVEL SUPPORT ALONG WITH BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING/INSTABILITY.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN/SOUTHERN GA AND INTO FL
WILL GENERALLY TEND TO BE AS HIGH AS 3 TO 4+ INCHES OF RAIN IN A
VERY LOCALIZED FASHION. HOWEVER, HEAVIER TOTALS OF UP TO 4 TO 6+
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SC
WITH THESE SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AREAS OF SOUTHEAST NC MAY GET INTO SOME
OF THESE IMPACTS AS WELL. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...RAH...TAE...
TBW...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...
LAT...LON 34848011 34677876 34297796 33727790 33227831
32417923 31828047 30908131 29478257 29308347
29658403 30198387 31308335 32218258 32918185
33608149 34438118
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