788
AWUS01 KWNH 110342
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-110930-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1475
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1141 PM EDT SAT OCT 10 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS...
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 110345Z - 110930Z
SUMMARY...STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE LINES
MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TO FURTHER ENHANCED LOCALIZED RAIN
RATES UP TO 1.25"/HR (1.5"/HR IN LOWER FOOTHILLS). BROAD 1-2"
THROUGH SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH MORE FOCUSED 2-3" TOTALS LIKELY
TO MAINTAIN FLASH FLOODING OVERNIGHT.
DISCUSSION...03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS POST T.C. ISAIAS CENTER
OVER N AL WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT THROUGH TO A TRIPLE POINT LOW
NORTHEAST OF ATLANTA, GA, WHERE A SOUTHWARD ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
IS STARTING TO PRESS MORE EASTWARD UNDER INFLUENCE OF SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER-LOW. THE
STATIONARY FRONT CONNECTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD A SECONDARY SURFACE
WAVE SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSON, SC; LIKELY NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AND DEEPEST MOISTURE. RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS
NOSE OF 1250-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE NEAR THIS WAVE AND ENHANCED DEEP
LAYER CONVERGENCE. THIS ALIGNS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE TROWAL AND
IS SUPPORTED A SOUTH TO NORTH BAND OF EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS
FROM SPARTANBURG, SC TO BURKE, NC COUNTY CAPABLE OF 1-1.5"/HR
RATES. VERY SLOW EASTWARD PUSH HAS SUPPORTED LOCALIZED 2-3"
TOTALS IN THE LAST FEW HOURS AND INVIGORATED A CORRIDOR OF ONGOING
FLASH FLOODING.
FROM THE SECONDARY LOW, A WARM FRONT BISECTS SC TOWARD GEORGETOWN,
THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY SURFACE TO 925MB WINDS
OF 30-40KTS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MODERATELY MOIST AIR INTO THE NC
AND SW VA APPALACHIANS IN ADVANCE OF THE STRONGER CONVERGENT BANDS
AS THEY PRESS EASTWARD. CIRA LVT IN THE SURFACE TO 850MB LAYER
REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE ACROSS NC WITH 200+ KG/M/S THROUGH THE
STATE ALLOWING FOR SOLID UPSLOPE AND CONSISTENT MODERATE RAINFALL
WITH RATES UP TO .5"/HR; BUT 850-700MB AND 700-500MB SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT 40-50KTS AND MODEST VEERING/CONVERGENT WIND PROFILE FAIRLY
ORTHOGONAL TO THE TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE HIGHER LVT
THROUGH GREATER DEPTH AND ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CORES COULD
STILL SUPPORT LOCALIZED 1.25-1.5"/HR TOTALS.
THE CELLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE A BIT MORE SCATTERED IN
NATURE GIVEN SLIGHTLY REDUCED DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE BUT AFTER
SOLID RAINS/TOTALS OF 3-6" EARLIER THROUGH THE DAY IN NC, ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AT RATES OVER 1"/HR AND ADDITIONAL SPOT TOTALS
OF 2-3"+ ARE LIKELY TO REAGGRIVATE FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS AND
EXPAND LARGER STREAMS/RIVERINE FLOODING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, ESPECIALLY AS FFG VALUES CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW 1-1.5"/HR
AND <2.5/3HRS IN MUCH OF THE MPD AREA OF CONCERN.
GALLINA
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...RAH...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 37407959 36797929 36128004 35468042 34948078
34618099 34228132 33548221 33658288 34138344
34838356 35218322 35788249 36068195 36598137
37028064 37318007
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