588
FXHW01 KWNH 110624
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
224 AM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VALID 00Z MON 12 OCT 2026 - 00Z MON 19 OCT 2026
OUR POTENT MID TO UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE ISLAND IS
BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY BY THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE THE DISTURBANCE
FULLY DECAYED BY THE END OF MONDAY. PWAT ANOMALIES WILL RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON LENDING TO A RETURN TO A
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL CONVECTIVE SETUP, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.
BEGINNING MONDAY, A WEAK DISTURBANCE STEMMING FROM A PINCHED OFF
MID- LEVEL VORTICITY STREAM TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MEANDER TO THE
WEST AND CLOSE OFF LATER TONIGHT WITH A CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
BIG ISLAND COME MONDAY MORNING. THIS COULD TRIGGER A BIT MORE OF
A CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE BIG ISLAND TOMORROW AND TUESDAY, BUT
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT GIVEN THE LESS THAN
FORMIDABLE PWATS IN PLACE. OUR DISTURBANCE WILL BEGIN SHIFTING TO
THE EAST BY TUESDAY WITH A GENERAL CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
EXPECTED OVER THE PACIFIC BY MID-WEEK WE SEE A RETURN TO A
TYPICAL TRADE- WIND PATTERN OVER THE REGION WITH BROAD RIDGING
RETURNING TO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. SOME MODEST MOISTURE FLUXES
WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW TRIGGERING SLIGHT
CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENTS TO THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE ISLANDS FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND FOLLOWING WEEKEND, ALBEIT NOTHING
SUBSTANTIAL AT THIS JUNCTURE.
KLEEBAUER
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