837
AWUS01 KWNH 111611
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-112210-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1479
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1210 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHEAST OH...NORTHEAST
KY...CENTRAL AND WESTERN WV...SOUTHWEST PA
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 111610Z - 112210Z
SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED GOING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL
RATES, SLOW CELL-MOTIONS AND WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT SOME AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-E VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
SOME PARTIAL CLEARING SKIES AND THUS AN UPTICK IN SOLAR INSOLATION
ACROSS AREAS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OH. THE UPPER
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH POST-T.C. ISAIAS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE OFF TO
THE EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER OH AND TN VALLEY REGION AND
IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC ENERGY WILL FOSTER SOME MODEST STEEPENING
OF MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH COUPLED
WITH AN UPTICK IN BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY SHOULD HELP FOSTER AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. MUCAPE VALUES ARE
ALREADY LOCALLY AROUND 500 J/KG, AND SOME INCREASE IN THIS
MAGNITUDE CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION TO GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION, THE INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH LOCAL OROGRAPHICS SHOULD AN INCREASE IN
RAINFALL RATES.
THE LATEST 12Z HREF/REFS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOME RAINFALL RATES OF
1 TO 2 INCHES/HOUR ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CELLS.
THE CELL-MOTIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE RATHER SLOW, AND WITH THE AID OF
OROGRAPHICS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS,
SOME POCKETS OF 2 TO 3+ INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
ANTECEDENT SOIL CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SENSITIVE WITH LOW FFGS AND
RELATIVELY ELEVATED STREAMFLOWS FROM EARLIER RAINFALL. THE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL GOING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE A
STRONGER CONVECTIVE FOOTPRINT THAT WILL ENCOURAGE MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RUNOFF CONCERNS AT LEAST LOCALLY. THE HIGHEST HREF/REFS
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING FFG EXCEEDANCE ARE OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN WV, BUT WITH THE SENSITIVITIES MORE REGIONALLY THAT ARE IN
PLACE, A RELATIVELY BROADER CONCERN FOR AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED GOING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...JKL...LMK...PBZ...RLX...RNK...
ATTN...RFC...TIR...NWC...
LAT...LON 40698034 40577930 39707931 38567981 37858056
37498134 37268261 37478364 38108427 38798420
39208378 39998165
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page