016
AWUS01 KWNH 111756
FFGMPD
WYZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-NVZ000-112355-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1481
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
155 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE
VALID 111755Z - 112355Z
SUMMARY...HEAVY RAINFALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH POST-T.C. RACHEL WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST, INCLUDING AREAS OF EASTERN NV, CENTRAL/NORTHERN UT, AND INTO
SOUTHEAST ID. PERSISTENT AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING A LOCALIZED BURN SCAR
FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
DISCUSSION...THE LATEST GOES-W SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH OSPO
ALPW DATA SHOWS A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH POST-T.C. RACHEL CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY ADVANCE WELL INLAND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. A WELL-DEFINED FRONTAL
ZONE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL BE ADVANCING GRADUALLY EAST AND
CONTINUING TO INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE AXIS AND THE ELONGATING
LOW AND MID-LEVEL VORT ENERGY FROM RACHEL.
THE COMBINATION OF THIS MOISTURE WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT,
ALONG WITH STRONG OROGRAPHICS/UPSLOPE SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE
850/700 MB LAYER ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AREAS
OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. SOME MUCAPE VALUES REACHING 500+ J/KG ARE NOSING UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UT, AND THIS NOSE OF MODEST
INSTABILITY MAY TEND TO ADVANCE FARTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN UT
THIS AFTERNOON TO FACILITATE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. GOES-W VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES DUE TO SHOW AREAS OF PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN UT, AND THE INCREASE IN SOLAR INSOLATION
SHOULD FAVOR AN UPTICK IN BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY.
ENHANCED 850/700MB MOISTURE FLUX AND THE UPTICK IN INSTABILITY MAY
FAVOR SOME RAINFALL RATES WITH ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS REACHING AS
HIGH AS 1 INCH/HOUR. THE EJECTING REMNANT ENERGY OF RACHEL WITH
THE OROGRAPHICS WILL TEND TO SUPPORT THESE HIGHER RATES ALSO BEING
A BIT MORE FOCUSED OVER AREAS OF HIGHER TERRAIN.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OF UP TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE, AND ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAINFALL
RATES WITH CONVECTION MATERIALIZE. THESE ADDITIONAL RAINS MAY
CAUSE SOME AREAS OF FLOODING, WITH THERE BEING A LOCALIZED BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOOD THREAT.
ORRISON
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...LKN...PIH...RIW...SLC...VEF...
ATTN...RFC...PTR...RSA...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 43631200 43551111 42511082 40801093 39671122
38521203 38471312 38501417 39501454 40781420
41881373 42991300
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