855
AWUS01 KWNH 112333
FFGMPD
COZ000-AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-120430-
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 1483
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
731 PM EDT SUN OCT 11 2026
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN AZ...SOUTHERN UT...SOUTHEAST
NV...SOUTHWEST CO
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY
VALID 112330Z - 120430Z
SUMMARY...THE INTERIOR SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES OF 1"/HR ATOP
INCREASINGLY SENSITIVE SOILS. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE LIKELY WITH LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...THE PROLONGED FETCH OF ANOMALOUS IVTS SURPASSING 500
KG/M/S AND PWS ABOVE THE 97.5 CLIMATOLOGICAL PERCENTILE WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING. PERSISTENT SWRLY
700MB WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
VARIOUS MOUNTAIN RANGES (MOGOLLON RIM, ZION NAT'L PARK, SAN JUAN).
CAPE LEVELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME DOWN AS SURFACE BASED HEATING
DECREASES, BUT SOILS REMAIN QUITE SATURATED. SOUTHEAST NV,
SOUTHWEST UT, AND NORTHERN AZ CONTAIN 50-75% SOIL SATURATION PER
FLASH CREST WITH LOCALIZED VALUES TOPPING 75%. LATEST 22Z HRRR
SHOWS POCKETS OF >1" RAINFALL TOTALS AND THE 18Z HREF SHOWS LOW
CHANCES (20-30%) FOR 6-HR QPF > 10YR ARIS IN SOUTHERN UT, NORTHERN
AZ, AND SOUTHEAST NV. UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER
OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS GIVEN THEIR PLACEMENT FARTHER EAST AND
DOWNWIND OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING IS
LIKELY THIS EVENING AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING EFFICIENT
RAINFALL RATES AND INCREASINGLY SENSITIVE SOILS.
MULLINAX
..PLEASE SEE WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGZ...GJT...PSR...SLC...VEF...
ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...
LAT...LON 39400989 39010901 38770823 38520771 38140723
37350726 37150766 37130892 36910947 36510990
35981035 35111070 34111115 33751153 33701199
33961268 34561354 35241435 36121452 36971430
37631375 38521255 39321069
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