135
FXHW01 KWNH 210846
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
446 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2026
VALID 00Z WED 21 OCT 2026 - 00Z WED 28 OCT 2026
THE WEAKENING OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
SHOULD LEAD TO A RELAXATION OF THE WINDS IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
THE MODELS TEND TO BE IN AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
TRANSIT THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION BUT THEY DIFFER IN THE
OVERALL EVOLUTION (THE ECENS BEING STRONGER THAN THE SOLUTION
SHOWN BY THE GEFS). REGARDLESS OF WHICH VERIFIES...THE
EXPECTATION IS FOR INCREASING CHANCES OF RAINFALL GIVEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION BY THE TRADES MAINLY FROM THE
WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE DEEPEST
TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STAY CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH, BUT SOME
HIGHER PWS AND INCREASED RAINFALL CHANCES ARRIVE BY SATURDAY AS
THE TROUGH ADVECTS SOME OF THIS MOISTURE TOWARDS THE NORTH, MAINLY
AFFECTING THE BIG ISLAND.
BANN
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