234
FXHW01 KWNH 230854
PMDHI
HAWAII EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
454 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VALID 00Z SAT 24 OCT 2026 - 00Z SAT 31 OCT 2026
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE ISLANDS WILL SEND A TROUGH AXIS INTO THE REGION TODAY INTO
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL DISRUPT THE TRADE WINDS TO AN EXTENT,
ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING A STEADY NORTHEASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE
STATE. WITHIN THIS FLOW WE SHOULD SEE A CONTINUATION OF PERIODIC
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL WEST OF THE ISLANDS
MOVES EAST. REGARDLESS OF THE STATE OF THIS LOW, A TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING EAST OF IT SHOULD HELP FOCUS AN INCREASING RAINFALL
THREAT. WHILE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON THE EXACT
STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS LOW, THEY ALL GENERALLY DEPICT THIS TROUGH
AXIS AND PWS INCREASING TOWARDS 2.3". THUS IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT AN
INCREASE IN THE RAINFALL AND AT LEAST SOME FLOOD THREAT WILL
OCCUR BY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
DETAILS, SUCH AS EXACT TIMING/LOCATION/MAGNITUDE OF THE THREAT
REMAINS LOW AND WE WILL THUS HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS
OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUPPORTS SOME WANING
OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL AXIS BY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH
PWS SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE
RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THIS TIMEFRAME.
CHENARD
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