355
ACUS03 KWNS 100815
SWODY3
SPC AC 100814
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0214 AM CST SUN NOV 10 2024
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
..SUMMARY
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY EVENING.
..SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY
A ZONAL UPPER FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES WILL BUCKLE AS A
FULL-LATITUDE TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE WEST AND LIKELY REACHES
THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY.
GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE EVOLUTION OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE BROAD TROUGH. NON-NCEP GUIDANCE PREFERS
AMPLIFICATION OF THE PRIMARY IMPULSE WITHIN THE BASAL PORTION OF THE
TROUGH. THIS WOULD RESULT IN PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
OVERSPREADING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY WILL BE LACKING, OWING TO THE CONTINUED
PRESENCE OF TC RAFAEL IN THE WESTERN GULF. MODIFIED MOISTURE RETURN
WILL EMANATE NORTHWARD FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO. A PLUME OF LOW TO MID
50S SURFACE DEW POINTS SHOULD REACH THE TX PANHANDLE BY LATE DAY.
THIS MAY YIELD A NARROW RIBBON OF MEAGER/WEAK BUOYANCY (MLCAPE
AROUND 500 J/KG), AHEAD OF A SHARPENING SURFACE TROUGH. CONFIDENCE
IS LOW IN WHETHER SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL BECOME SUSTAINED PRIOR
TO SUNSET, GIVEN THE LIMITED BUOYANCY AND RATHER DRY MID-LEVELS
WITHIN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME. MORE PROBABLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
INCREASES WITH APPROACH OF THE TROUGH AND STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
WARM THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH FAVORABLE SPEED SHEAR IN THE
CLOUD-BEARING LAYER, A FEW ELEVATED SUPERCELLS MAY FORM WITH A
THREAT FOR HAIL. SEVERE HAIL MAGNITUDES SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE
EARLY PERIOD OF SUSTAINED-STORM ACTIVITY, BUT SMALL HAIL COULD
PERSIST EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT.
..GRAMS.. 11/10/2024
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