915
ACUS03 KWNS 110821
SWODY3
SPC AC 110820
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CST MON NOV 11 2024
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN
LA/FAR SOUTHWEST AL TO CENTRAL MS...
..SUMMARY
A MARGINAL TORNADO/WIND THREAT IS APPARENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A PART OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
..LA/MS/AL
A BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE MS VALLEY, LIKELY EXTENDING FROM THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES TO AT LEAST THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY BY 12Z
THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE SPREAD IN JUST HOW AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH
WILL BE. THIS WOULD CORRESPONDINGLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
LOW-LEVEL FLOW ENHANCEMENT IN THE DEEP SOUTH TO CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THE WEAK COLD FRONT THAT INTRUDES ON THE CENTRAL GULF COAST D1 WILL
STALL AND THEN ADVANCE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT LATE D2 INTO D3. RICH
TROPICAL MOISTURE, CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN-MIXING RATIOS OF 15-16
G/KG, WILL BE PRESENT TO THE SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, YIELDING
POTENTIAL FOR MODEST BUOYANCY ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. PRIOR TO THAT,
EXTENSIVE ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITHIN
THE WARM CONVEYOR, SLOWING THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
THE SPREAD IN HOW FAR SOUTH STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL OVERLAP THE
FRONT/WARM SECTOR, LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST.
CONDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THE RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER
MOISTURE TO OVERLAP MODERATE LOW-LEVEL SRH AMID A VEERING WIND
PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. STILL, STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED FARTHER NORTH-NORTHWEST, SUGGESTING THAT SUSTAINED
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES SHOULD STRUGGLE. TRANSIENT LOW-LEVEL ROTATION
NEAR THE OUTFLOW-MODULATED FRONT IS SEEMINGLY THE MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO, WHICH WOULD OFFER A LOW-PROBABILITY TORNADO/WIND THREAT.
..GRAMS.. 11/11/2024
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page