670
ACUS03 KWNS 111922
SWODY3
SPC AC 111922
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0122 PM CST MON NOV 11 2024
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
..SUMMARY
A MARGINAL TORNADO/WIND THREAT IS APPARENT ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS A PART OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.
..SYNOPSIS
SOME DEAMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE U.S. IS EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY, AS A CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY, AND THEN INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES/MIDWEST/TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS, A
WEAKENING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL LIKEWISE CROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTRY, EXTENDING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
AREA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA
RICH LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO LINGER OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST AREA WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WEAK LAPSE RATES ALOFT WILL LIMIT
SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY, AND MEANWHILE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL
REMAIN FARTHER NORTH -- ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/OHIO
VALLEYS. STILL, SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED -- IN
PART RELATED TO REMNANTS OF RAFAEL. THE VEERING/INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH HEIGHT MAY SUPPORT TRANSIENT ROTATION IN A FEW
OF THE LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS, AND THUS LOW-PROBABILITY POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO OR TWO, OR A STRONG WIND GUST, REMAINS EVIDENT.
..GOSS.. 11/11/2024
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