122
ACUS03 KWNS 120811
SWODY3
SPC AC 120810
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CST TUE NOV 12 2024
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT
LAKES/OHIO VALLEY IS FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFY ON
THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM, A SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND DEEPEN SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GA/CAROLINA COASTS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. FARTHER WEST, A DEEP MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE FURTHER INLAND ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
..CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF COAST VICINITY
RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST GULF COAST VICINITY, AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY PERSIST FROM
LATE IN THE D2/WEDNESDAY PERIOD AND/OR REDEVELOP FROM THE MORNING
INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL TEND TO VEER AND WEAKEN WITH TIME IN AREAS WHERE
RICHER MOISTURE IS IN PLACE, WHILE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
LIMIT INSTABILITY. WITH THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL EXPECTED TO BE CONSTRAINED AND THE ENVIRONMENT
FORECAST TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE WITH TIME, ORGANIZED SEVERE
POTENTIAL APPEARS TOO LIMITED/UNCERTAIN TO INCLUDE PROBABILITIES.
HOWEVER, A STRONG STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF
CONVECTION FROM LATE D2/WEDNESDAY IS ABLE TO REMAIN SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED INTO THE D3/THURSDAY FORECAST PERIOD.
..COASTAL CAROLINAS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
THAT IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GA/CAROLINA COASTS
LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR
RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SURFACE-BASED BUOYANCY TO APPROACH
PARTS OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR. WHILE IT CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE, THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR DEVELOPMENT OF AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE COAST.
..DEAN.. 11/12/2024
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