985
ACUS03 KWNS 121914
SWODY3
SPC AC 121913
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0113 PM CST TUE NOV 12 2024
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A NEGATIVELY TITLED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LOSE AMPLITUDE AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD
WHILE ALSO DEVELOPING A CLOSED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. THIS RESULTING
CYCLONE WILL THEN LIKELY PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC BY EARLY FRIDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS
EVOLUTION, SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS ANTICIPATED OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST, OR PERHAPS JUST INLAND OVER THE COASTAL CAROLINAS.
FARTHER WEST, THE OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY AS RIDGING
BUILDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND TROUGHING DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
..CENTRAL/NORTHEAST GULF COAST VICINITY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD
THROUGH MOIST AND MODESTLY BUOYANT WARM SECTOR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION. NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONFINED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE COOLER, MORE
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS OVER THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC REMAINING
PLACE. A STRONG STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS WARM SECTOR,
PARTICULARLY THURSDAY MORNING FROM SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN AL INTO THE
WESTERN FL PANHANDLE, BUT LIMITED BUOYANCY AND WEAKENING SHEAR
SHOULD KEEP ANY SEVERE THREAT ISOLATED, PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR ANY
SEVERE PROBABILITIES WITH THIS OUTLOOK.
..COASTAL CAROLINAS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE SURFACE LOW
EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING LIMITS THE CONFIDENCE ON HOW FAR INLAND ANY FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY WOULD PENETRATE. CURRENT GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE COULD BE A CONFINED AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT NEAR
THE NORTHERN NC COAST WHERE THERE IS ENOUGH OVERLAP BETWEEN MODEST
BUOYANCY AND STRONG SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL. GIVEN
THE LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THIS REGION AND THE GENERAL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN, NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES
WERE INTRODUCED WITH THIS OUTLOOK. HOWEVER, A SMALL AREA MAYBE
NEEDED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
..MOSIER.. 11/12/2024
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