131
ACUS03 KWNS 140826
SWODY3
SPC AC 140825
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0225 AM CST THU NOV 14 2024
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
..NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
..SUMMARY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.
..SYNOPSIS
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OUT OF THE DEEP
TROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND MOVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY. A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN
MEXICO, AND POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AS A SURFACE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
EARLY-STAGE MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY, AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND A MODEST
LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LOW. THIS
EARLY MOISTURE RETURN IS EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ANY
APPRECIABLE SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION. A PLUME OF ELEVATED
MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM PARTS OF THE
GREAT PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. A GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM AREA HAS BEEN INCLUDED FOR THIS ISOLATED THUNDER
POTENTIAL, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY REMAINS RATHER HIGH.
..DEAN.. 11/14/2024
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