075
ACUS03 KWNS 160821
SWODY3
SPC AC 160820
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY MORNING. A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS A RELATIVELY LARGE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
..SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AT DAYBREAK ON MONDAY, A NEGATIVELY-TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
IN THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WITH AN ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET MOVING
THROUGH THE BASE OF THE SYSTEM. AS THE MID-LEVEL JET MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY MORNING, SEVERE WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN ORGANIZED LINE
SEGMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS COULD EXTEND
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS. DURING THE DAY, THE
LINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS THE MID-LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES AWAY TOWARD
THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON IN VERY WEAK
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THIS POTENTIAL COULD BE GREATEST
FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OZARKS, ALONG AND
NEAR THE AXIS OF A 50 TO 60 KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
GUSTS IS EXPECTED TO BE MARGINAL.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM FAR EAST TEXAS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA MONDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR AN ISOLATED WIND-DAMAGE THREAT, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL BE LIMITED HELPING TO KEEP ANY THREAT MARGINAL.
..BROYLES.. 11/16/2024
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