011
ACUS03 KWNS 161932
SWODY3
SPC AC 161931
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0131 PM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...
..SUMMARY
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA MONDAY MORNING. A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE GUSTS IS
EXPECTED ACROSS A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO
THE OZARKS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
..SYNOPSIS
A SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN WHILE PIVOTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, DRIVEN BY A NEGATIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
POISED TO EJECT INTO THE MS VALLEY REGION FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES
ON MONDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO PRECEDE THE
SURFACE LOW, WITH A SQUALL LINE TRAILING THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SCANT BUOYANCY, DRIVEN BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM-AIR ADVECTION DUE TO
A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL JET, WILL COINCIDE WITH A STRONG SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT EARLY MORNING SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE
SQUALL LINE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISOLATED SEVERE
POTENTIAL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THE SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL AND
EASTERN KS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
..SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MS VALLEY
A MATURE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY TRAVERSE A CORRIDOR OF AROUND 500
J/KG SBCAPE OVER NORTHERN TX INTO OK ON MONDAY MORNING. DESPITE POOR
LAPSE RATES, A 60+ KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENCOURAGE SOME
BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION VIA MOISTENING. THIS INTENSE
LOW-LEVEL JET, OVERSPREAD BY 50-80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW
FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH, WILL ENCOURAGE ENLARGED/CURVED
HODOGRAPHS AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE, SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO, ESPECIALLY FOR
ROBUST PORTIONS OF THE SQUALL LINE CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW, WHERE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE STRONGEST. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD, STRONGER UPPER SUPPORT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW, POTENTIALLY SUPPORTING
SQUALL-LINE WEAKENING IN THE PROCESS. GIVEN STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW
AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE, ANY MECHANICAL DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT
MAY ENCOURAGE ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS, WITH THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF
THE MARGINAL RISK/SEVERE THREAT HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE MAINTENANCE
OF THE SQUALL LINE.
..KANSAS INTO MISSOURI
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS DEPICTS SOME STRENGTHENING OF THE SURFACE LOW
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH STRONG NORTHWARD
MOISTURE ADVECTION AND DIURNAL HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT, WHICH IS POISED TO BE SOMEWHERE OVER SOUTHERN INTO
CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON, SUGGESTS THAT SOME CLEARING AND STEEPENING
OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY OCCUR. SHOULD THIS BE THE CASE, ANY
ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO MATERIALIZE MAY SUPPORT A MARGINAL
SEVERE HAIL THREAT, AND A TORNADO ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. GREATER
SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS IF FUTURE
GUIDANCE CAN DEMONSTRATE A CONSENSUS, WITH CONSISTENCY, IN
APPRECIABLE AIRMASS RECOVERY NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT. IT IS UNCERTAIN
HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO MO.
..SQUITIERI.. 11/16/2024
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