102
ACUS11 KWNS 131804
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131804
COZ000-NMZ000-UTZ000-AZZ000-132000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2070
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0104 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN UTAH...WESTERN COLORADO...EXTREME NORTHEAST
ARIZONA...AND FAR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 131804Z - 132000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS. A
WATCH IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH A SEASONALLY STRONG TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. MODEST DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW 70FS ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH
COOL MID-LEVELS. THE RESULT WILL BE LOW-TO-MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON
THE ORDER OF 7-8.5 C/KM. THESE LAPSE RATES AND THE PRESENCE OF UPPER
40FS TO LOW 50FS DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE AREA, WILL YIELD MOST UNSTABLE
CAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1000, TO PERHAPS 1500, J/KG.
EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR INCREASES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS YOU GET
CLOSER TO THE EMBEDDED SPEED MAX NEAR THE BASAL REGION OF THE
TROUGH. HOWEVER, THE COLDER MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL BE DISPLACED
A BIT FARTHER NORTH. DESPITE THE BEST OF BOTH BEING A BIT OFFSET,
SUFFICIENT OVERLAP WILL GIVE RISE TO AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL
AND WIND THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
A WATCH IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED, BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
..MARSH/GUYER.. 09/13/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...GJT...FGZ...SLC...
LAT...LON 36990948 37551001 39351080 39911048 40300920 40270673
38770679 37310691 36630782 36230890 36990948
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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