651
ACUS11 KWNS 141822
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141821
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-142045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2073
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0121 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE...FAR EASTERN
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...AND PORTIONS OF FAR
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 141821Z - 142045Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL POSE A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN, BUT WILL BE
MONITORED THIS AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...CONVERGENCE IS INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG A
SLOWLY MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A 70-KNOT
UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW PATTERN
AROUND A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. HERE, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES HAVE
WARMED INTO THE UPPER 70FS AND LOW 80FS, AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WARM
WITH ADDITIONAL DIURNAL HEATING. AT THE SAME TIME, SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-TO-MID 60FS, WITH ONLY LITTLE VERTICAL MIXING OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXPECTED GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE ON THE ORDER OF 7 C/KM, WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE COMBINATION AT
THE SURFACE, YIELD MOST UNSTABLE CAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2500
J/KG DEPENDING ON THE EXACT COMBINATION.
CURRENTLY, EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER POOR ACROSS THE AREA, BUT
MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED JET STREAK APPROACHES
THE AREA. DESPITE THIS INCREASE, EFFECTIVE-LAYER SHEAR WILL STRUGGLE
TO SUSTAIN SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS,
INSTEAD FAVORING MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS EXHIBITING TRANSIENT
SUPERCELL-LIKE CHARACTERISTICS.
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ONE NEGATIVE FOR ANY SUSTAINED POTENTIAL WILL BE THE
NEUTRAL-TO-RISING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS
AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD. AS SUCH, STORM-SCALE
PROCESSES WILL LIKELY DRIVE ANY SUSTAINED SPATIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL.
THUS, THE NEED FOR A WATCH IS CURRENTLY UNCERTAIN AND WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE DETAILS OF CHARACTER OF ANY STORM INTERACTIONS
AND THE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT MAY ULTIMATELY DEVELOP. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..MARSH/GUYER.. 09/14/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 35800078 36500082 37300005 37449949 37409895 36879884
36019937 35470007 35800078
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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