416
ACUS11 KWNS 142210
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142209
NDZ000-SDZ000-142345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2079
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 610...
VALID 142209Z - 142345Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 610 CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL ND.
DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES, ASSOCIATED WITH A PARENT
MCV, HAVE PRODUCED SEVERAL TORNADOES, INCLUDING A FEW LONGER-LIVED
TORNADOES WITHIN THE PAST HOUR. THESE SUPERCELLS ARE ANCHORED ALONG
AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT, AND ARE LIKELY BENEFITING FROM BOTH THE
AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY FROM THE MCV, AS WELL AS LOCALLY BACKED
FLOW (AND THUS SRH) DRIVEN BY THE MCV AND EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT. THE
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW LONG WILL THE LOCALLY HIGHER TORNADO THREAT
LAST, SINCE THE EFFICIENCY OF TORNADO PRODUCTION IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT
ON THESE STORMS REMAINING ANCHORED TO THE FRONT. GIVEN ADEQUATE
BUOYANCY PRECEDING THESE STORMS AND THROUGHOUT THE WARM SECTOR, THE
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL ND.
ADEQUATE BUOYANCY, 40+ KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR, AND OVER 100
M2/S2 EFFECTIVE SRH RESIDES ACROSS EASTERN ND, WHERE OTHER STORMS
HAVE BEEN PERCOLATING IN INTENSITY. A SEVERE HAIL/WIND THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE WITH THESE STORMS. THE TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
OVERALL LOWER WITH STORMS AWAY FROM THE MCV. HOWEVER, THE TORNADO
THREAT WILL REMAIN NON-ZERO GIVEN A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET.
..SQUITIERI.. 09/14/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...
LAT...LON 45959995 46560051 47200086 47750112 48230131 48630119
48910082 48930048 48849970 48469906 48069849 47459819
46939815 46549836 46149867 45929895 45819921 45809954
45959995
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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