951
ACUS11 KWNS 142211
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142211
NEZ000-KSZ000-150015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2080
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL PLAINS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 611...
VALID 142211Z - 150015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 611
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...HAIL/WIND THREAT CONTINUES WITH STORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.
DISCUSSION...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING
EXTENDS ACROSS WESTERN KS INTO CENTRAL NE, IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC DATA SUGGESTS 1000-2000 J/KG
MLCAPE IS NOTED ACROSS THIS PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
COINCIDENT WITH AN EXPANDING ZONE OF FRONTAL CONVECTION. THIS
ACTIVITY HAS RECENTLY INCREASED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A NOTABLE
VORT MAX EJECTING NORTHEAST, WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LARGER TROUGH.
WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR APPEARS MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING
LONGER-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS, NUMEROUS STORM MERGERS HAVE RESULTED
IN A MORE QLCS-TYPE STRUCTURE THAT IS ADVANCING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS
WESTERN PORTIONS OF WW611. MRMS DATA SUGGESTS AT LEAST MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IS NOTED WITH MANY OF THESE UPDRAFTS, AND THIS TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
..DARROW.. 09/14/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...OAX...ICT...GID...LBF...GLD...
LAT...LON 39170102 41750079 41759808 39169841 39170102
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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