560
ACUS11 KWNS 152133
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152133
SDZ000-NEZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-152330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF WYOMING INTO FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 152133Z - 152330Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW SEVERE GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORM CORES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
DISCUSSION...HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN INCREASING
IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE OVERSPREADING A VERY
DRY BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH RAP FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED-V
PROFILES EXTENDING UP TO 600 MB, RESULTING IN UP TO 1200 J/KG DCAPE.
FURTHERMORE, THESE STORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN A 500 MB WIND MAXIMUM,
WHERE 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ARE IN PLACE. AS SUCH,
SUSTAINED STORMS ATOP A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER MAY PRODUCE
ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS, ESPECIALLY WHERE DEEPER CORES MAY MATERIALIZE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
..SQUITIERI/GLEASON.. 09/15/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 43281021 44960558 45200369 44890291 44320272 43750295
43360342 42900413 42490515 42250619 42130731 42140834
42310928 43281021
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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