809
ACUS11 KWNS 162225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 162224
MNZ000-170030-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2087
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0524 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 162224Z - 170030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD REGION OF MINNESOTA. SOME RISK FOR HAIL/WIND CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
DISCUSSION...SOUTHERN EXTENT OF SK/ON SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS
INFLUENCING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION, ESPECIALLY THE
ARROWHEAD OF MN. STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING HAS CONTRIBUTED TO
SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY ACROSS THIS REGION, AND INHIBITION IS CURRENTLY
NEGLIGIBLE WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S. LATEST
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
CONGESTUS AND TOWERING CU OVER ST. LOUIS COUNTY. OVER THE LAST FEW
MINUTES, A WEAK SHOWER, WITH LIGHTNING, HAS DEVELOPED NEAR ELY AND
THIS UPDRAFT IS LIKELY ROOTED WITHIN A CONFLUENT BOUNDARY LAYER
CHARACTERIZED BY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR
SOME RISK FOR HAIL/WIND AS THUNDERSTORMS INTENSIFY AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD INTO
NORTHWEST ON, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THE AREA IS TOO LIMITED TO
ISSUE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..DARROW/GLEASON.. 09/16/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DLH...
LAT...LON 47409303 48369129 47948953 46749205 47409303
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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