581
ACUS11 KWNS 172015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172015
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-172215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST COLORADO...NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO...FAR
WESTERN OK/TX PANHANDLES
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 172015Z - 172215Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH INITIAL
SUPERCELLS. WITH TIME A CLUSTER OR TWO MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT WIND THREAT. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.
DISCUSSION...CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME MORE PROMINENT FROM NEAR
COLORADO SPRINGS SOUTHWARD TO THE RATON MESA THIS AFTERNOON--WITH
RECENT THUNDERSTORM INITIATION NOTED IN NLDN DATA. AT LEAST SOME
MLCIN REMAINS WITHIN THE PLAINS TO THE EAST, BUT THIS SHOULD ERODE
WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND CERTAINLY BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH HAS
PROMOTED 30-40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR ACROSS THE TERRAIN. LOW 50S F
DEWPOINTS AT THIS ELEVATION SUPPORTS NEAR 1000 J/KG MLCAPE. STORMS
SHOULD AT LEAST INITIALLY BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND
SEVERE GUSTS. GIVEN THE EASTERLY WINDS AND PRESENCE OF A WEAK
BOUNDARY, A BRIEF TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. OVER TIME, SOME UPSCALE
GROWTH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LEADING TO PROPAGATING OUTFLOW. A CLUSTER OR TWO
COULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AND MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS.
..WENDT/GUYER.. 09/17/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
LAT...LON 36820460 37480488 38250516 38850516 39060487 38760423
38400385 37880314 37340276 36810268 36240294 36180372
36820460
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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