148
ACUS11 KWNS 180228
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180228
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-180430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2095
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2025
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST CO TO TX PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613...
VALID 180228Z - 180430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...STRONG-LOCALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. GUSTY WINDS
AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
DISCUSSION...PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING, CURRENTLY ARCING FROM SOUTHWEST
KS-OK PANHANDLE-NORTHEAST NM. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, A CONVECTIVELY
ENHANCED BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OK.
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS BUOYANCY HAS GRADUALLY DECREASED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE HIGH PLAINS, PARTIALLY DUE TO NOCTURNAL COOLING, BUT ALSO DUE
TO SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING. POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CO, BUT THIS
ACTIVITY IS ADVANCING THROUGH AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG. THE MORE CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF CONVECTION
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE, BUT
THIS ACTIVITY TOO MAY STRUGGLE WITHIN A LIMITED-BUOYANCY REGIME. A
NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..DARROW.. 09/18/2025
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 35150087 35790270 37000414 38330494 38400356 37210238
36070038 35150087
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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