480
ACUS01 KWNS 191958
SWODY1
SPC AC 191956
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
FROM THE APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
..SUMMARY
LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING FLASHES MAY PRODUCE
OCCASIONAL STRONG-DAMAGING GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO,
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE APPALACHIANS AND
TONIGHT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
..20Z UPDATE
GIVEN THE INCREASING LACK OF LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT AND THE WEAKENING
TREND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA, SEVERE
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE/BIG BEND.
A SHALLOW BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES NORTH AND EASTWARD FROM THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE STRONGEST
MID-LEVEL ASCENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS EVENING.
DESPITE MINIMAL BUOYANCY, STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT
SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND GUST POTENTIAL.
..WENDT.. 10/19/2025
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1123 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2025/
..APPALACHIANS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC TONIGHT
A SHARP MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100+ KT JET WILL PROGRESS
FROM TN/KY LATE THIS MORNING TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE IS IN THE PROCESS OF
OCCLUDING JUST NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR, WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS TODAY AND
REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OVERNIGHT. A NARROW
BAND OF SHALLOW CONVECTION/ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY COINCIDES WITH THE
FRONT/WIND SHIFT FROM EASTERN KY INTO OH AS OF 16Z. WEST OF THE
SURFACE WIND SHIFT, LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
FLASHES CONTINUES WITH THE PRIMARY MIDLEVEL VORTICITY MAX/LEFT-EXIT
REGION OF THE JET ACROSS CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE TN.
BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK (MUCAPE OF 100-300 J/KG) AND THE
DEPTH OF THE FRONTAL CONVECTION WILL BE MARGINAL FOR CHARGE
SEPARATION AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTION. STILL, THERE WILL BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER OF ~50 KT LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE CONSOLIDATED CONVECTIVE BAND THIS
AFTERNOON FROM EASTERN OH/KY AND WV EASTWARD INTO THE APPALACHIANS,
AND OVERNIGHT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC.
..NORTHEAST GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON
THE REMNANTS OF EARLY MORNING CONVECTION PERSIST NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE FL PANHANDLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT AND A
WEAKENING SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. FORCING FOR ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SUBSTANTIAL INLAND
DESTABILIZATION IS UNLIKELY GIVEN WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND WEAKENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW COMPONENTS WITH TIME. THUS, ANY REMAINING SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE COAST AND WILL LIKELY END LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.
..WA COAST TODAY
A MIDLEVEL TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ALOFT AND STEEP
LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IS SPREADING INLAND. A FEW LOW-TOPPED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING ALONG THE WA COAST,
AND A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR
SO. VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR SOME STORM
ORGANIZATION, BUT THE ODDS OF SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS APPEAR TOO LOW TO
WARRANT THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page